China is Walking A Tightrope

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The Politics of Growth
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China is currently walking a tightrope...

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<p>Actually, we are very confused. Maybe a lot of people are extremely bullish on China's future, but I would say that, personally, I am extremely confused. What will happen going forward is, to a large extent, not going to be decided by economics, neither will it be determined by the global environment, it is really in the hands of the Chinese people, even in the hands of a small number of politicians. And what will happen in the next 30 years is probably going to be determined by the political situation in China in the next ten years. Because we haven't talked about the political developments of the past 30 years, for example, I think that Hu Jintao's succeeding Jiang Zemin was a very big political development. While it involved a lot of competition and power struggle, in comparison to every other power struggle in modern Chinese history, this one has actually brought great benefits. At least on the surface, the transfer of power has been very smooth. But, going forward, how is it going to be? To what extent can they further China's economic and political reform? What system of checks and balances will the next generation of leaders have between themselves so that when they encounter difficulties they won't be walking too far ahead or too far behind? Because we all believe that China is currently walking a tightrope. Whether they move to the left or the right, there is a possibility of falling off. I think the key point is whether the government of the next ten years, or 30 years, will be able to keep this balance well. Currently, a lot of people are optimistic about this because the leaders-to-be already seem to have a basic structure. But is this the way that it will be? Because history is too complicated and the tightrope is too narrow, it is extremely hard to keep the balance. So, personally, I don't dare have any particularly optimistic or pessimistic view.</p>
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Lei Bo weighs the dangers of political succession to China's continued economic growth. He believes that China is walking a tightrope and that too much movement in any direction could cause China to fall off.